Showing posts with label drama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label drama. Show all posts

Monday, August 1, 2011

Drama or crisis?

28 July 2011 Last updated at 10:44 GMT By Damian Kahya Business reporter, BBC News Tea party supporter protests against raising the debt limit Some Republicans are firmly against raising the debt ceiling As worries over debts move from Europe to the US, the markets have reacted with only mild panic.

Economic problems in the US could be far more serious for the world economy than anything that could happen in Greece.

But some economists have suggested that an essentially political drama is being mistaken for an economic crisis.

The US government needs the permission of Congress to raise the ceiling on the amount of money it can borrow.

If Congress doesn't grant it - currently the deadline is 2 August - the government will hit the limit and may have difficulties in paying its bills.

But there is a wider economic problem behind the stalemate.

The US - like Greece - is spending far more than it earns through taxes.

The annual budget deficit has reached $1.5tn (?920bn) this year - just over 10% of GDP - and the country has amassed a national debt of around $14.3tn.

Continue reading the main story
The interests of voters and the interests of the markets are completely at odds”

End Quote Dr Pippa Malmgren Principalis Asset Management President Barack Obama and the Republican controlled House of Representatives both agree the US needs to borrow less in the future - they just disagree on how.

It's that argument which is delaying progress on lifting the current borrowing limit.

As a result, ratings agencies have suggested that they may downgrade US debt from its benchmark top-rated AAA status - unless the two sides agree on radical action to lift the limit and cut the deficit.

Default

The immediate worry for investors is that, if no deal is agreed by the 2 August, the US may find itself at risk of a so called technical default.

"The interests of voters and the interests of the markets are completely at odds," says Dr Pippa Malmgren from Principalis Asset Management.

Some members of Congress were elected promising not to allow the government to run a deficit.

"The market keeps being surprised when it shouldn't be. You will win votes if you shut the government down," she says.

President Clinton President Clinton shut down some government services in 1995 after parties failed to agree a budget

But a failure to reach a deal by the deadline may not provoke panic.

"The 2 August deadline is not an absolute deadline, because tax revenues are pretty good so far," says James Knightley from ING.

Potential impact

If it does run out of money the government may stop paying wages and social security checks - a so-called 'shut down'.

Government last shut down under Bill Clinton in 1995 when non-essential government services stopped after similar failed negotiations over the budget.

That would hurt the fragile economic recovery - but many economists find it hard to believe the US would ever default and fail to pay its debts.

"I think the risk of that is almost zero," says Josh Feinman, global chief economist for DB Advisors.

"They'll keep paying the bond holders but they'll stop paying someone else." he added.

Not everyone agrees with Mr Feinman though.

The US needs to re-finance $1.7tn, or 12% of its total debt this year - that would be hard to do if it can't borrow fresh funds.

Fidelity, one of the largest private sector holders of US bonds, say they have been preparing for a possible default.

"We have re-positioned our portfolios to respond to [the threat of default] and that means we have raised our liquidity [cash] and adjusted our portfolio maturities past the early part of August," says Robert Brown, head of Fidelity's money-market business.

That means funds - which lend money to banks and businesses - are already holding more cash to prepare for a possible default.

This limits the amount they can invest - potentially driving up the cost of lending to businesses.

The cost will stay high until investors believe the crisis is solved on a long term basis.

With so much at stake some warn that, unless it is resolved soon, the political stand-off may undermine wider business confidence.

"We've got a melodrama here and we're going to have a panic for no good reason," warns Professor Peter Morici from the University of Maryland.

"If they do something at the eleventh hour they might not avoid panic. Companies are starting to hoard cash and delay hiring, that is the beginning of a crisis."

The economy could slow as companies panic over the uncertainties created by seemingly endless negotiations in Washington.

Downgrade

Even if the borrowing limit is raised, the US may have its top AAA credit rating downgraded.

Ratings agency Standard and Poor's has cut its outlook on the US's credit rating to negative.

Economists say agencies want a comprehensive deal to limit the US deficit over the long term.

"Agencies have said if we don't get the debt ceiling raised soon, coupled with an agreement in both houses of Congress to stop the debt ballooning, then we are going to downgrade the US," says Phillip Shaw from Investec.

Lowering the credit rating may make it harder for the government and companies to borrow money in the long term.

"You might see some impact outside of treasuries," warns Mr Feinman.

A trader Markets have so far failed to panic over debt talks

US debt would be less safe, so investors holding it would have less freedom to lend to other, riskier, companies.

"If you downgrade the US then they might have to sell some lower-rated stuff in order to keep the average credit quality."

But he doesn't think a downgrade makes any sense.

The US, he says, is not like Greece - it controls its own currency and can print as much as it likes to pay back debts.

"A credit rating is based on the chances [lenders] are going to get paid back. When you control your own monetary policy what does a rating even mean?" argues Mr Feinman.

Figures collated by ING show that 45% of US debt is held by the US government - which is unlikely to be unduly perturbed by a downgrade.

Even money-market funds such as Fidelity would not have to sell their debt, as US law makes government debt exempt from rules about diversification of risk.

Over the long term though the US may find it very hard to recover it's credit rating - should it need to.

"In my 16 years at Fidelity and at other firms, I've never seen an upgrade to AAA. We are the bellwether for safety and there are a lot of advantages that go with that," says Mr Brown.

Distraction

Some argue the episode is a distraction.

"The slowdown we are seeing in emerging and developed markets, together with the ongoing European crisis, is foremost in my thinking," says Rick Patel, portfolio manager at Fidelity International in the UK.

He sees the current uncertainty as investment opportunity.

"I've been investing in US treasuries largely because of the weakening growth outlook [in the US] which leads me to think treasuries are the way to go."

For others, the focus will soon return to Europe, where governments can't simply print money to get out of debt.

"Once the US story is complete and that is past we are going to revert to the eurozone story again," says Mr Knightley.


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Friday, June 24, 2011

Greek drama to dominate EU summit

23 June 2011 Last updated at 11:45 GMT Greek PM George Papandreou (left) with EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, 20 Jun 11 Greek PM George Papandreou (left) faces tough questions from EU colleagues The threat of a Greek debt default undermining the euro overshadows an EU summit getting under way in Brussels.

The 27 EU leaders are expected to reaffirm their determination to defend the single currency.

But the BBC's Europe editor says there is little they can do until the Greek parliament votes on a new package of tough austerity measures next week.

Many economists think a Greek default is inevitable sooner or later - and that would hit confidence in the euro.

Prime Minister David Cameron is likely to insist again that the UK - which did not contribute to the first Greek bail-out last year - should not be involved in any second Greek rescue, our Europe editor Gavin Hewitt says.

Migration pressures are also on the agenda at the two-day summit.

The key question is whether, following an influx of migrants from North Africa this year, the EU's open borders policy should in exceptional circumstances be suspended.

Leaders are also expected to endorse and set a date for Croatia's accession to the EU - likely to be July 2013.

Anger on Athens streets

Greece's EU partners are anxious to see the Greek parliament approve a five-year austerity package of tax increases and spending cuts worth 28bn euros (?25bn; $40bn).

Continue reading the main story June 28: Greek parliament to vote on a new austerity packageJuly 3: Eurozone deadline: will sign off latest bail-out payment to Greece - 12bn euros - if austerity package has passedJuly 15: Default deadline: Without the 12bn euros it needs to make debt repayments, Greece will defaultGreece will not get the next instalment of its 110bn-euro bail-out unless it adopts the measures. Yet many Greeks are angry, believing that their country is being sacrificed for the sake of the euro, and they have held mass protests and strikes against the EU's stringent bail-out conditions.

Trade unions in Greece have called a two-day general strike to coincide with next week's debate in parliament on the package.

Both private and public sector unions are protesting against the cuts.

Eurozone ministers recognise that Greece will need another big EU lifeline. On Sunday they agreed to put together a second bail-out package worth 120bn euros to fund Greece into late 2014.

In an interview on the BBC's Hardtalk programme French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe spoke of "a very strong determination in the [EU] member states to save what has been done in the past 50 years".

"We've no choice. If the eurozone disappeared the EU itself would be in danger - we can't afford such a situation," he said, insisting that "there will not be any default of Greece".

Former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt told the BBC that the Greek crisis was an opportunity for the 17-nation eurozone to build a closer economic union. He now leads the liberal bloc (ALDE) in the European Parliament.

"They need to create an economic union next to the monetary union, because monetary union cannot work alone," he told the Today programme on BBC Radio 4.

"To have 17 different governments, with 17 different economic strategies, with 17 different markets, that doesn't work in monetary union.

"They have no choice. They are maybe not courageous enough to make the choice today, but I am very sure that this Greek crisis is not finished."


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