Showing posts with label austerity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label austerity. Show all posts

Monday, July 4, 2011

Austerity knocks

1 July 2011 Last updated at 11:08 GMT Jamie Robertson By Jamie Robertson Presenter, BBC World News Protesters holding a giant painting of a train Rail workers will try to block privatisation of the network The relief rally on the markets that has greeted the austerity deal in Greece prompts the question, what are investors buying into?

Most extraordinary of all was a 4% rise since Tuesday in the Athens Composite Index.

Why would anyone buy into an austerity plan that pretty much guarantees the economy will shrink by 3.2%, send unemployment up to 15.5% and hold out precious little hope of recovery?

And let us not forget that as GDP shrinks, the deficit, as a percentage of GDP grows, which in theory would require another austerity programme, which would shrink the economy and raise the deficit and so on, ad infinitum.

The word "growth", so dear to investors' hearts, is conspicuous by its absence.

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There is also an advantage in getting new management into these large infrastructure companies”

End Quote Jamie Stewart Eden Financial If the austerity plans are implemented in full - and there's little faith that they will be - taxes go up, and spending gets sliced to the bone.

The third aspect, though, is privatisation, designed to raise 50bn euros within the next five years. Fifteen billion euros is pencilled in for 2011-12.

Seeing that the Greek government was unable to sell off even seven billion euros' worth during the boom times of 2004 to 2008, the chances of it being able to conduct an auction at anything above fire-sale prices seem slim.

New broom?

However, privatisation could do more than fill the empty coffers. Jamie Stewart, director of independent research at Eden Financial, says: "There is obviously an advantage in having funds directed into the government from these sales, but there is also an advantage in getting new management into these large infrastructure companies, get them growing again and contributing more in terms of taxes."

Traders point at a screen Stocks surged after the Greek parliament passed its second austerity package

So the Ministry of Finance has bravely announced an "immediate" sale of the telecoms group OTE, the postal bank, the ports of Athens and Thessaloniki and the public water company in Thessaloniki.

Deutsche Telekom already has 30% of OTE. In 2008, the Greek government negotiated a put option to sell it another 10% at 2008 prices.

Deutsche Telekom can hardly be thrilled by the idea of buying into a company where net profits plummeted 54% in the first quarter of this year. But then again, you can hardly blame the Greek government for taking the chance to cash in a few OTE shares for a handsome 400m euros.

Selling banks may prove more problematic. They have weak market positions and require capital injections.

The Agricultural Bank of Greece had the appalling distinction of actually failing the original European stress test which gave a clean bill of health to that doomed trio, Anglo-Irish Bank, Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland.

Utilities bonanza

The water companies, the ports and some of the commodity companies may get more buyers, although all of these have very powerful and militant unions, which are in no mood for cost-cutting new owners.

Most daunting of all is the Public Power Corporation of Greece, which is loaded with dirty lignite-burning power stations.

In two years, it will face mounting bills for CO2 emission certificates under EU carbon trading rules. And its unions are as feisty as any in the country, turning off the lights on a regular basis to fight privatisation proposals.

On the other hand, water may prove easier, especially when potential investors such as Veolia Environment and Suez Environment have experience in operating in volatile economies, often amid anti-privatisation groups.

The Hellenic Tellecommunications building with Greek and black flags in front. Workers occupied the Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation

The government is also expected to sell its 49% stake in the rail group OSE, which may prove attractive to foreign investors - so long as the government assumes the 10bn euros' worth of debt and chops out some of the non-profit making lines.

Up for sale, too, will be some of its loss-making defence companies - Hellenic Defence Systems, Hellenic Vehicle Industry, Hellenic Aerospace Industry.

And there are reports that buyers from the US, Israel and Germany are actively considering bids, again depending on whether the government will assume some of its debt.

Punters welcome

Perhaps the most attractive candidate for foreign investors is state-controlled gambling operator OPAP, Europe's biggest betting firm. It operates nine casinos, a horse racing operator and state lotteries.

Total proceeds in 2008 were about 8.7bn euros and it has exclusive rights on sports betting and lotto games in Greece until 2020.

The Greek Olympic pool 11 years after the games Olympic properties may be sold off, if the government can complete a land registry

And on the subject of games, many of the Olympic properties are likely to go up for sale, too, which is only fair since their construction played a not insignificant role in getting Greece into this mess in the first place.

However, property sales generally are said to be fraught with legal problems, not least of which is the lack of a centralised and reliable land registry.

What that means is the government may well want to sell a patch of land - but take years, through legal and political obfuscation and delays, trying to do so. All of which could well be said of the whole privatisation project.


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Sunday, July 3, 2011

Greek MPs approve austerity plan

30 June 2011 Last updated at 14:18 GMT The BBC's Jon Sopel says tour buses have returned to Syntagma Square

Greece's parliament has passed a second vote on its austerity programme, which was needed to secure the country further financial support.

The vote approved putting into practice the tax hikes, pay cuts, privatisations and public sector redundancies approved in principle on Wednesday.

It was a retreat from the "grave scenario of default", the EU said.

Public reaction has been very hostile, and the debate has been accompanied by strikes and violent protest.

After hours of discussing the measures, MPs started voting shortly after 1600 (1300 GMT); an hour later, PM George Papandreou had secured enough votes to push the bill through.

Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said German banks and insurers had agreed to participate in a plan to continue lending to Greece, following a similar decision by French lenders.

Mr Schaeuble said German institutions would contribute 3.2bn euros ($4.6bn, ?2.9bn) to the plan.

Calm returns

Mr Papandreou's ruling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) has a slim parliamentary majority, with 154 out of 300 deputies. Thursday's bill was passed by 155 votes to 136.

Continue reading the main story Debate starts at 0930 local time (0630 GMT)Vote itself not before 1400Roll-call vote with verbal response by MPsPossible additional votes on individual articlesGovernment has a majority of eight over all other partiesCabinet to meet after the voteSome Socialist MPs had said they would vote against individual clauses such as an increase in heating oil levy and a rise in the minimum tax threshold.

Clashes continued on Syntagma (Constitution) Square outside parliament overnight, as police fired tear gas at stone-throwing youths.

Calm now appears to have returned and the BBC's Malcolm Brabant in Athens says the city's street-cleaning crews have come out in force removing debris from two days of battles in the square.

Police had restricted access to the city centre to prevent demonstrators from obstructing members of parliament heading to vote on the new law.

Some Athenians have accused the police of heavy-handed tactics, and newspapers have railed against what one called "an orgy of state terror", our correspondent says.

Some accused the police of over-using tear gas.

Scores of people were treated for injuries and severe breathing problems.

Government confident

Government officials said they were confident that those who supported them in Wednesday's vote, when the package was approved in principle by 155 votes to 138, would also vote for implementation, known as enabling legislation.

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All that has happened is that a default has been avoided at a moment when Europe's banks are still vulnerable”

End Quote image of Gavin Hewitt Gavin Hewitt BBC Europe editor Its measures include:

The setting up of a privatisation agencyPreparation for privatisation of state-owned real estateTax increasesCurbs on public sector recruitmentSocial security regulations

The opposition New Democracy party, which voted against the government on Wednesday, has said that it will support some elements of the bill involving privatisation and spending cuts.

"We will do what we can to support the government," said MP Nikos Dendias, a former justice minister, quoted by Reuters news agency. "We will vote for two chapters of the bill today."

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Total Greek debt

An old drachma note and a euro note Greece is about to get a second bail-out from the EU, aimed at helping pay its debts until 2014. It also has to agree more cuts as part of the deal.

The economy

The opening ceremony at the Athens Olympics The Greek economy is in dire straits. Retail sales have fallen 18% since 2008 and manufacturing output has dropped 30% in the same period.

Working population

A defunct restaurant for sale in central Athens Greeks retire on average at 61. Tax evasion is widespread. Until 2010, public sector workers received two months extra pay a year in bonuses.

EU demands

A man with a bag of coins walks past the headquarters of the Bank of greece_crisis To meet EU demands, Greece must sell 50bn euros-worth of public assets by 2014, equal to 20% of GDP. Public sector pay is being cut 15%.BACK {current} of {total} NEXT Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos has offered some concessions on tax, one of the most contentious parts of the package.

The vote will enable Greece to receive the latest tranche of a 110bn-euro (?98bn) loan in time instead of defaulting.

But analysts say the real challenge will come after the loan is secured, and there is concern about whether the austerity measures can be effectively implemented in the face of so much public hostility.

Wednesday's vote prompted a furious response from protesters in Athens.

Sporadic violent clashes were continuing in the capital in the early hours of Thursday between masked protesters - armed with sticks and stones - and riot police firing tear gas and stun grenades.

Despite the unrest, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy welcomed the result as a "vote of national responsibility" paving the way for a second aid package.

Continue reading the main story June 29: Parliament approves new austerity package June 30: MPs vote on details of implementing packageJuly 3: EU will sign off latest bail-out payment to Greece - 12bn euros - if both votes are passedJuly 15: Without the 12bn euros, Greece will defaultThe package of tax rises and budget cuts - worth about 28bn euros over five years - had been championed by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou.

Had it been rejected, Greece could have run out of money within weeks. The EU and the International Monetary Fund have demanded that the measures are implemented before they extend further loans to Greece.

Greek unions are angry that the government's austerity programme will impose taxes on those earning the minimum wage, following months of other cuts that have seen unemployment rise to more than 16%.

Once passed, European officials will start to finalise the details of a second bail-out, worth an estimated 120bn euros, designed to help Greece pay its debts until the end of 2014.

Countries most exposed to Greek debt

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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Greece passes key austerity vote

29 June 2011 Last updated at 14:07 GMT The BBC's Jon Sopel describes the battle between the police and rioters as one of "cat and mouse"

The Greek parliament has voted in favour of a drastic package of austerity measures intended to save the country from defaulting on its debts.

The proposed tax hikes and spending cuts have been deeply unpopular with the Greek public.

A nationwide 48-hour strike is under way and violent clashes are continuing in the streets of the capital, Athens.

Greece is heavily in debt and the package is needed to win the latest tranche of a 110bn-euro (?98bn) loan.

MPs passed the measures by 155 votes to 138.

They will hold a second vote on Thursday aimed at law reforms that would allow the package to be implemented.

'No time to step back'

Ahead of the vote, PM George Papandreou urged MPs to approve the package by consensus.

Continue reading the main story

Total Greek debt

An old drachma note and a euro note Greece is about to get a second bail-out from the EU, aimed at helping pay its debts until 2014. It also has to agree more cuts as part of the deal.

The economy

The opening ceremony at the Athens Olympics The Greek economy is in dire straits. Retail sales have fallen 18% since 2008 and manufacturing output has dropped 30% in the same period.

Working population

A defunct restaurant for sale in central Athens Greeks retire on average at 61. Tax evasion is widespread. Until 2010, public sector workers received two months extra pay a year in bonuses.

EU demands

A man with a bag of coins walks past the headquarters of the Bank of greece_crisis To meet EU demands, Greece must sell 50bn euros-worth of public assets by 2014, equal to 20% of GDP. Public sector pay is being cut 15%.BACK {current} of {total} NEXT He had faced wavering support from within his governing Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), which has a slim majority, with 155 seats out of 300 in parliament. But in the end, only one Pasok deputy voted against the package.

Mr Papandreou says his austerity plan is the only way to get Greece back on its feet.

"We must avoid the country's collapse at all costs. Now is not the time to step back," he told deputies.

Were his 28bn-euro austerity package to be rejected, Greece could run out of money within weeks, as the EU and the International Monetary Fund want the measures implemented before they release more funds to help Greece pay off its vast debts.

Top EU officials welcomed the result as a "vote of national responsibility", saying it had pulled Greece away from the "very grave scenario of default" while paving the way for a second aid package.

"The country has taken an important step forward along the necessary path of fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reform," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said in a joint statement.

'Unfair but necessary'

But Greek unions are angry that the government's austerity programme will impose taxes on those earning the minimum wage, following months of other cuts that have seen unemployment rise to more than 16%.

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No one in Greece believes the tax increases, lay-offs, privatisations will ever be fully implemented. ”

End Quote image of Gavin Hewitt Gavin Hewitt BBC Europe editor Sporadic clashes are continuing between masked protesters and riot police outside parliament.

Shortly after the vote, dozens of rioters using ladders broke into the first floor of an office building near parliament on Syntagma Square before being driven out by police, witnesses said.

The vote covered the first part of Greece's austerity package, focusing on raising taxes to secure some 14.09bn euros over the next five years and introducing 14.32bn euros in public spending cuts.

The package is needed to secure the next instalment of the country's 110bn-euro bail-out to be released by the EU and IMF.

Ahead of Wednesday's vote, the governor of Greece's central bank, George Provopoulos, said a 'no' vote would be "suicide" for the country.

Thursday's vote is over the implementation of different parts of the package, such as tax rises and the sale of state assets.

Continue reading the main story June 29: Parliament approves new austerity package June 30: MPs to vote on details of implementing packageJuly 3: EU will sign off latest bail-out payment to Greece - 12bn euros - if both votes are passedJuly 15: Without the 12bn euros, Greece will defaultOnce passed, European officials will start to finalise the details of a second bail-out, worth an estimated 120bn euros, designed to help Greece pay its debts until the end of 2014.

The impact of the Greek vote would be felt worldwide said Herman Van Rompuy, president of the EU Commission, on Tuesday.

Recently appointed Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos acknowledged that the cuts were "unfair", though absolutely necessary.

But the main opposition leader, Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party, said the thinking behind the austerity package was flawed, and that tax rates should be lowered rather than raised in order to stimulate the economy.

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Monday, June 6, 2011

Greek austerity negotiations fail

27 May 2011 Last updated at 16:03 GMT Protests against Greek austerity measures on 25 May There have been protests in Greece against austerity plans Greek leaders meeting in Athens have failed to agree on Prime Minister George Papandreou's new austerity plan.

Conservative leader Antonis Samaras rejected the measures, saying they would "flatten the Greek economy and destroy Greek society".

Mr Papandreou, a Socialist, had been trying to secure cross-party agreement for further cuts.

The chairman of the eurozone finance ministers has warned the IMF may not extend further bail-out payments.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said IMF rules might stop it paying because Greece could not guarantee its solvency for the next year.

Mr Papandreou's government began a programme of privatisations on Thursday, but Mr Juncker has said the privatisation plan needs to be more ambitious.

A 12bn-euro ($17bn; ?10bn) payment is due to be made to Greece on 29 June, 3.3bn euros of which should come from the IMF.

It is the fifth tranche of the 110bn-euro loan package from the EU and IMF and has not yet received final approval.

Mr Juncker said the IMF was assuming that if it decided not to make the payment, the EU would step in and make it instead, although he said that countries such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands may oppose that.

'Correct errors'

In an interview with the Aachener Zeitung newspaper, the President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, also urged Greece to ensure financial stability.

"Greece must implement the programme fully and rigorously; this is very important to correct the errors of the past," he is reported to have said.

Under the terms of the bail-out, Greece was supposed to go to the financial markets to borrow 24bn euros in 2012.

However, as Greece has missed its deficit reduction targets, the chances of it being able to borrow money commercially next year are very small.

The IMF would like the EU to agree to make up the shortfall if necessary through a second bail-out package, but that could be unpopular among northern European taxpayers.

An IMF spokeswoman confirmed that the Fund would be unable to lend more money to Greece unless it was sure that next year's financing gap would be filled.

"We never lend when we don't have an assurance that there will be no gap," said Caroline Atkinson at a briefing in Washington.

"That is how we maintain the safety of our members' money."

But a spokesman for Mr Juncker later said that if the EU and IMF inspectors currently in Athens could be convinced by new Greek austerity measures, there would be no problem with the next tranche of loans.


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