Showing posts with label rating. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rating. Show all posts

Monday, August 1, 2011

Moody's warns over Spanish rating

29 July 2011 Last updated at 14:48 GMT People in Madrid protesting about spending cuts and high unemployment Spain is continuing to see a number of protests about spending cuts and high unemployment Moody's has warned it may downgrade the credit rating of Spanish government bonds, saying last week's second rescue package for Greece had done little to ease debt concerns in the eurozone.

The rating agency said it was reviewing Spain's current Aa2 grade, adding that if it was downgraded, it would probably be by just one level, to Aa3.

Moody's added that the Spanish economy remained "subdued".

The Spanish government has now called an early general election.

The announcement was made just hours after Moody's made its credit rating warning, and will see Spain go to the polls on 20 November.

Explaining the decision, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said he wished to "project political and economic certainty" over the months ahead.

However, it could be benefit the opposition conservative Popular Party, as it is ahead of the ruling Socialist Party in the polls.

The government could have waited until March of next year to hold the general election.

'Bond precedent'

In explaining why it was reviewing Spain's credit rating, Moody's highlighted the fact that as part of the second bail-out deal for Greece, private bondholders were being invited to participate.

Continue reading the main story image of Sarah Rainsford Sarah Rainsford BBC News, Madrid

This is another blow to Spain - anxious to convince investors it won't need a Greek-style bailout. But Moody's still has concerns, so it has put Spain on review, for what's likely to be a one-notch downgrade of its government debt.

The ratings agency points to the slow pace of economic growth here, and the high levels of debt in Spain's autonomous regions. They account for almost half of state spending and several warn they'll overshoot the budget deficit target set by Madrid.

The Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has insisted that won't affect his target of cutting Spain's overall deficit to 6% by the end of the year. But investor doubts, coupled with concern over the details of the latest bailout for Greece, has already pushed Spain's borrowing costs higher and higher.

The Prime Minister has now announced an early general election for November; the main opposition party has long insisted a change of government is the only way to recover confidence in this economy.

The private bondholders, such as banks, are being asked to exchange their current Greek bonds for ones which pay a lower rate of interest over a longer term.

Moody's said this set a "precedent", adding that it had "signalled a clear shift in risk for bondholders of countries with high debt burdens or large budget deficits".

However, if Spain is downgraded to Aa3, this remains a healthy investment grade.

Moody's also said five Spanish banks could have their credit ratings downgraded because of the same concerns.

These include the largest two lenders, Banco Santander and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA).

'Fiscal slippage'

Despite the forthcoming general election campaign, Spain's central government is continuing to enforce cost-cutting efforts to reduce its public deficit.

However, Madrid is hampered by the fact that Spain is a heavily devolved country, and its regional governments, such as those in Catalonia and the Basque region, are not moving as fast or as deep in trimming their spending.

Moody's highlighted this problem, warning of "fiscal slippage" at the regional and local government level.

Spain is also struggling with the eurozone's highest unemployment rate, which now stands at 20.9%.

Spain's main share index was down 0.7% in afternoon trading, after falling as much as 2.4% immediately following Moody's announcement.

The yield on the Spanish government's 10-year bonds rose 10 percentage points to 6.10%.

The euro declined, falling 0.3% against the dollar to $1.4287.

"The trigger is that the [Greek] deal last week has not really rebuilt confidence across the eurozone, so Spain is still on their radar screens with costs rising," said Giada Giani, analyst at Citigroup.


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Sunday, July 17, 2011

S&P warns of US rating downgrade

15 July 2011 Last updated at 02:13 GMT Ben Bernanke US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke has said a default would cause a "major crisis" Standard & Poor's has become the latest ratings agency to issue a warning of a possible downgrade to the US's debt rating.

It said there was a "one-in-two" chance that it may cut the US's AAA rating if a deal to raise the government's debt ceiling is not agreed upon soon.

The warning comes as cross-party talks in Washington have failed to reach a consensus on the issue.

The US has until 2 August to raise government borrowing limits.

"Today's CreditWatch placement signals our view that, owing to the dynamics of the political debate on the debt ceiling, there is at least a one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the US within the next 90 days," the agency said.

The agency added that it was concerned the talks between the government and the opposition had become "more entangled" and the two sides were not budging from their respective positions.

"Consequently, we believe there is an increasing risk of a substantial policy stalemate enduring beyond any near-term agreement to raise the debt ceiling," S&P explained.

No-win situation Continue reading the main story
We believe that an inability to reach an agreement now could indicate that an agreement will not be reached for several more years”

End Quote Standard & Poor's As a result of the stalemate between the parties, the government could find itself in a precarious situation.

If it finds itself unable to borrow more money, there is a likelihood that the government will not be able to make scheduled payments on Treasury bills, bonds and other securities held by investors.

S&P said that in such a scenario, the government may be forced to curtail current expenses in an attempt to avoid such a default.

It warned that such a move would have a negative impact on the US economy.

"We think that the effect on consumer sentiment, market confidence, and, thus, economic growth will likely be detrimental and long lasting," it explained.

The agency said that while cutting government spending would dent consumer confidence, a default on payments had far bigger consequences.

"If the government misses a scheduled debt payment, we believe the effect would be even more significant and, under our criteria, would result in Standard & Poor's lowering the long-term and short-term ratings on the US," it said.

Long-term solution?

The US's public debt has surged from from $10.6tn (?6.5tn) in January 2009 to $14.3tn at the end of May 2011.

Economists have warned that the world's biggest economy needs to come up with a long-term solution to contain the rising debt levels.

President Barack Obama has proposed a plan for up to $4tn in budget deficit reduction over the next 10 years, but Republicans have rejected that and other proposals because it calls for raising taxes.

On Thursday, President Obama told lawmakers he wanted an agreement on a debt deal within 24-36 hours, according to aides.

The comments came as a fifth consecutive day of cross-party negotiations failed to make a breakthrough. The president is scheduled to hold a news conference to discuss the troubled talks at 1100 (1500GMT) on Friday.

S&P warned that if the US authorities are not able to agree on a consensus plan, the issue may linger on for years to come and hurt the US economy.

"US political debate is currently more focused on the need for medium-term fiscal consolidation than it has been for a decade," it said.

"Based on this, we believe that an inability to reach an agreement now could indicate that an agreement will not be reached for several more years."


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Friday, July 15, 2011

Irish debt rating cut by Moody's

12 July 2011 Last updated at 20:57 GMT Pedestrians walk past a discount store on Moore Street in Dublin Moody's said it was increasingly likely that Ireland would need further rounds of official financing Ratings agency Moody's has cut the Republic of Ireland's debt rating to junk status.

Moody's said its decision was based on the "growing possibility" that Ireland would need a second bail-out before it can return to capital markets.

The current European Union and International Monetary Fund support programme is due to end in late 2013.

It comes at a time when markets fear the debt crisis in the eurozone could spread to Italy and Spain.

Ireland, Greece and Portugal have all been downgraded by ratings agencies several times in recent months.

Last week, the European Commission raised the issue of the "appropriateness of behaviour" of agencies, and Greek Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis said the agencies had exacerbated an already difficult situation.

In its latest downgrade, Moody's cut Ireland's ratings by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3.

And the agency warned that further downgrades were possible if the Irish government failed to meet its deficit reduction targets, or if Greece were to default, thereby causing further market disruption.


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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Moody's cuts Toyota credit rating

28 June 2011 Last updated at 09:09 GMT Workers give the final check to Toyota cars Toyota and other carmakers have been operating at reduced capacity since March's earthquake Car giant Toyota has had its credit rating cut by the ratings agency Moody's on worries that the strong yen and rising raw material costs will hit profitability.

Moody's cut the car maker's credit rating one notch to Aa3 from Aa2.

The ratings agency, which had put Toyota under review in April, said further cuts remained a possibility.

Toyota has faced major disruptions to its supply chain from the 11 March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

"Toyota's profit recovery during the period of its financial year to March 2013 will not be as strong as preferred due to its declining markets share in various regions, the strong yen and high raw material prices," Moody's said in a statement.

A strong yen makes Japanese exporters less competitive, and Toyota is a larger exporter than its Japanese competitors Honda and Nissan.


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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Moody's cuts Tepco credit rating

21 June 2011 Last updated at 00:51 GMT Officials in protective gear check for signs of radiation on children who are from the evacuation area near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Koriyama Residents are tested for signs of radiation after the leak at the Fukushima power plant Moody's Investor Service sharply cut Tokyo Electric Power's (Tepco) credit rating to junk status, as the operator of Japan's troubled nuclear power plant continues to struggle financially.

Moody's said it lowered Tepco's key rating four levels to B1 from Baa3.

The ratings agency said the reasons were rising costs and compensation fees related to the nuclear disaster.

Japan's government has proposed a support plan for Tepco, but faces opposition in Parliament.

"The latest downgrade reflects further escalation of costs and damages from the continuing Fukushima nuclear plant disaster and increased concern that government support measures may not completely protect creditors from losses," Moody's said in a statement.

The ratings agency also downgraded Tepco's senior secured rating to Ba2 from Baa2 and said it had put the company on review for possible further downgrade.

In May, Standard and Poors also lowered Tepco's long-term rating. A lower rating from credit ratings agencies makes it more expensive to borrow for companies.

Tepco faces huge compensation costs to individuals and businesses. Thousands of people remain evacuated from the area surrounding the Fukushima power plant.

The company reported a huge net loss of 1.25tn yen ($15.3bn; ?9.4bn) in the year to the end of March.

It was the largest loss in Japan's corporate history, excluding the financial sector.


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Saturday, June 18, 2011

China property rating downgraded

15 June 2011 Last updated at 05:40 GMT Consumer looking at property model China's strict credit policy is likely to hit new home sales, thus affecting property prices Rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded its outlook for China's property market from stable to negative due to the country's tightening credit policy.

The agency said as credit becomes more restricted there was a possibility of a downturn in the sector.

The news comes as latest data showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) in to China slowed down in May.

Rising property prices have become a hot political issue in China.

Restrictive policy

Beijing has been trying to rein in lending in an attempt to control surging property prices.

On Tuesday, China's central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio for the banks to a record high of 21.5%, effectively reducing the amount of cash that they can lend.

Government figures also showed that Chinese banks made fewer loans in May compared to April.

The agency said that all these measure are likely to hit the sector hard.

"We're likely to see more negative rating actions in the next six to 12 months," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Bei Fu.

"Tightened onshore credit conditions and increasingly restrictive government policy have deepened the market downturn," Ms Fu added.

Slowing investment

While authorities have been working towards restricting domestic credit, the rise in foreign investment in China has also slowed.

According to the commerce ministry, FDI was $9.2bn (?5.6bn) in May, a rise of 13.4% compared with the same month last year.

This was lower than April's 15.2% increase and less than half of March's 32.9% year-on-year surge.


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Saturday, June 4, 2011

UK's credit rating is downgraded... by China

24 May 2011 Last updated at 11:02 GMT George Osborne in front of a Chinese national flag Despite George Osborne's best efforts, the Chinese agency said slow growth would keep the deficit high The UK's credit rating has been cut by the Dagong rating agency of China.

The agency blamed the UK's sluggish growth, which it said would be stuck in the 1.3%-1.5% range for two more years, hurting government finances.

The downgrade from AA- to A+ puts Britain on a par with Chile and heavily-indebted Belgium, and the US, which Dagong downgraded in November.

In contrast, the big three Western rating agencies all still award the UK - and the US - the top AAA rating.

Dagong kept a negative outlook on the UK's rating, suggesting that more downgrades may be yet to come.

Deficit overshoot

"Obviously this is not one of the main rating agencies that markets pay close attention to," noted Sarah Hewin, European head of economic research at Standard Chartered.

But she said the comments could still have an impact on market sentiment, just because they are a reminder that all is not well in the UK.

"Although the fiscal side is being tackled, [Dagong] sees relatively low growth and high inflation," she explains.

The Chinese agency forecast that because of the slow growth, the budget deficit would still overshoot the government's 7.9% to 9% target, despite George Osborne's best austerity efforts.

It also warned that persistently high inflation could necessitate future rate hikes, increasing the UK's borrowing costs, while contagion from the eurozone debt crisis was also "likely to further worsen the government's fiscal status".

Politics of ratings

The three Western rating agencies - Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch - were heavily criticised for awarding excessively high ratings to mortgage securities and other debts that turned out to be toxic during the financial crisis.

Yet despite this failure, they remain highly influential because Western fund managers and banks typically face limits on what they can invest in that are based on credit ratings.

In contrast, Dagong's ratings are not widely relied on by investors outside China.

Some critics suggest that Dagong's ratings may offer a more impartial view of the true health of government finances in Europe and North America.

The Chinese president, Hu Jintao, called last year for global regulators to impose a more consistent methodology for the way in which sovereign governments are rated.

But while the Western agencies have threatened to review their ratings of both the US and UK in the past, none has yet to take action.

Meanwhile, Dagong - founded in 1994 - rates its home country of China AA+, three notches above the UK and US, and much higher than the People's Republic is ranked by the three western agencies.


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